Breaking Down The Senate

Disclaimer – This post is not a lame attempt to spin the loss as something it isn’t. The GOP deserved to get thumped. The key now is to learn why, and I think the reason is obvious. End disclaimer.
I’ve been spelunking through the voting data and am noting some interesting things.

First, let’s look at the Senate incumbent changes and try to see how it went. The following incumbents lost their seats.

In addition, Joe Lieberman retained his seat, but had to flee the Democratic Party to do so. Technically that is a loss for the Democrats, but the net result will depend on how well the Democrats can lick Joe’s boots.

The DeWine and Santorum loss are pretty embarrassing, considering the margins. Santorum carries a large profile in the party, so his scalp will be celebrated by the Democrats. DeWine, on the national stage, has essentially been a non-entity, so I don’t really know what to make of that race on the surface.

Santorum, at least in my opinion, has been a standard bearer for the things I don’t care to see in the realm of government. He’s an anti-gay crusader who made a number of harsh statements about Democrats and the Priest molestation scandal in Boston. While I was uneasy about the Terri Schiavo mess, Santorum injected himself front and center – a move which probably hurt him outside of the most committed Right to Lifers.

But we can’t ignore the war in all of this. Santorum, being of high profile, was a vocal supporter of the war. I wouldn’t say he was a spokesperson, but he certainly wasn’t shy about going on the Sunday talk shows and defending the administration. It is reasonable to assume this cost him. I’m not going to pretend voters are more bent out of shape over gay bashing than the war.

Despite Santorum’s moral crusade, I’m sorry to see his seat turn over. However, Senate-Elect Bob Casey is not a Pelosi Democrat. He opposes gun control, is pro-life, and does not support an exit time line. He stated he would have voted to authorize force, given what was known at the time. He’s hardly a cut-and-run type.

So what did Pennsylvania choose?

Turning to Ohio now. DeWine has significantly broken ranks with the party base. He’s pro-gun control, supports raising the minimum wage, and opposed ANWR drilling. He supports a guest worker program for illegal immigrants, and immigration has been a hot-button for the Conservatives this year.

In contrast, the Senate-Elect, Sherrod Brown, is notable as an anti-free trader, opposing CAFTA. I’m sure that goes over big in the industrial north of Ohio. I can’t find much more on Brown, so it is hard for me to read this result. DeWine’s departure from the Republican party base is exemplified by the fact that he held 5% fewer voters of his own party than Brown.

Lincoln Chafee in Rhode Island is actually a big relief for me. Chafee has always been a huge RINO (Republican In Name Only), consistently thumbing his nose at Conservatism. My only complaint is he didn’t lose big enough. What passes for Conservatism in the North East has never really been an asset to the party anyway. Come to think of it, most Republicans are starting to resemble Chafee anyway.

His opponent, Sheldon Whitehouse, supports a rapid withdrawal from Iraq. But then again, so did Chafee. Chafee even voted against the use of force back in ‘03. So what does this election result mean?

Talent and Burns lost by margins too close for meaningful analysis. Reading societal trends in one percent shifts is more like reading entrails.

Now a note about Joe. Lieberman supported the use of force, opposed a time table, and is generally unapologetic about his position. While I’m sure he has differences of opinion on how to run the conflict (and for God’s sake who doesn’t??), he wasn’t about to repudiate our attempt to midwife a Liberal Democratic Republic in the heart of Eighth Century Islam.

As a result, the far left anti-war ‘nutroots’ at the Daily Kos swung into action behind Ned Lamont and chased Joe out of the party. And Joe came back to win by 10%, carrying only 33% of registered Democrats.

The bottom line – did the Senate turn solely on disenchantment with the war? I don’t think you can say ‘yes’ to that unequivocally. No doubt it had an impact, but I don’t know that we saw a seismic shift IN THE SENATE RESULTS…I’ll be digging through the House races later, and we might indeed see something there.

Thoughts?

Technorati Tags: election, senate, results